The S & P 500 surpassed its 200-day moving average on Friday, leading investors to question whether the winning streak will last and, if it does, is the worst of the bear market in the rear-view mirror. The 200-day moving average calculates the average price of the index over the last roughly 40 weeks. That can be used as a gauge for general trends and to help investors understand how the index’s daily performance stacks up against recent history. The S & P 500 ended Friday at 3,999.09 points, above the 200-day average of 3,981.22. But investor optimism around that metric should be tempered by the fact that it has reached or surpassed the average a handful of times in 2022 only to fall back below it, according to JC O’Hara, MKM Partners’ chief market technician. On Monday, the S & P 500 broke a four-day winning streak , slipping 0.2% to 3,990.97, but it remained above that key point. “Moving averages are designed to suppress noise,” O’Hara said in his Monday note to clients. “Yet, we find much noise has been made about the recent test of the 200 DMA by the S & P 500 and the close above the average on Friday. There is nothing magical about this average besides the simple fact it is smack in front of every trader’s face, thus become self-fulfilling.” O’Hara noted the indicator has tended to be sign of a turnaround when 50% of the stocks in the index are above the 200 DMA after a deep oversold reading and following a bear market decline. However, he warned that this concept didn’t work in the wake of the 2000 market collapse on two occasions. About two out of every three S & P 500 stocks are individually above their respective 200-day moving averages, according O’Hara. CNBC Pro screened those stocks to find the ones that are also carrying the load of the broader index’s performance this year. In addition, stocks had to be expected to gain 20% or more in value over the next year based on average analyst price targets in order to make the list. Here are the eight names that made the list. All numbers are current through Friday’s close: Airlines Alaska and Delta are both trading around 10% above their 200-day moving average. The stocks are already trading up more than 15% this year, with further upside expected as airlines continue to rebound coming out of the pandemic. MGM Resorts is trading 14.3% above its moving average and is expected to rally 28.2%. The stock is among the travel names with exposure to China. Analysts expect it to do better as China reopens given MGM’s footprint in Macao, a major gambling destination . Wells Fargo is trading slightly above its average and analysts expect the stock to rise 21.5% over the next year. The bank is stepping back from the mortgage market — which it used to lead — amid regulatory pressure and the impact of rising interest rates. Last week, the bank reported fourth-quarter profits wer cut in half by recent settlment cots and a need to build up loan reserves as the economy weakens. EPAM Systems , Diamondback Energy , Moderna and T-Mobile also made the list.
© heardonwallstreet.com