Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Russia is moving troops into eastern Ukraine ahead of its anticipated offensive, a Ukrainian governor warned Monday.

“We are seeing more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we are seeing more equipment being brought in,” Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine’s governor of the mainly Russian-occupied Luhansk province, said Monday, according to Reuters.

“They bring ammunition that is used differently than before – it is not round-the-clock shelling anymore. They are slowly starting to save, getting ready for a full-scale offensive,” Haidai told Ukrainian television.

“It will most likely take them 10 days to gather reserves. After Feb. 15 we can expect (this offensive) at any time.”

Ukrainian officials have been warning for weeks that Russia is planning to launch a large-scale offensive in mid-February — and perhaps times to coincide with the first anniversary of the invasion — in order to try to capture the entire eastern Donbas region. Fighting has been relentlessly intense in Donetsk and Luhansk, which make up the Donbas, for months.

Ukraine is in a tricky position as it prepares to defend its positions in eastern Ukraine but awaits battle tanks and longer-range weaponry from its international allies. The delivery of tanks could take several months at least, Western officials say.

— Holly Ellyatt

It is highly likely that Russia has been attempting to restart major offensive operations in Ukraine since early January but it’s unlikely to have the manpower needed to affect the outcome of the war, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Tuesday.

Russia’s “operational goal is almost certainly to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast [region],” it added in its daily intelligence update on Twitter.

“Russian forces have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. This is almost certainly because Russia now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives.”

The ministry noted that senior commanders are likely making plans “requiring undermanned, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic objectives due to political and professional pressure” with Ukrainian intelligence suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the Donbas region to be captured by March.

“Russian leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances. It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks,” the ministry said.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia is moving troops into eastern Ukraine ahead of its anticipated offensive, a Ukrainian governor warned Monday.

“We are seeing more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we are seeing more equipment being brought in,” Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine’s governor of the mainly Russian-occupied Luhansk province, said Monday, according to Reuters.

“They bring ammunition that is used differently than before – it is not round-the-clock shelling anymore. They are slowly starting to save, getting ready for a full-scale offensive,” Haidai told Ukrainian television.

“It will most likely take them 10 days to gather reserves. After Feb. 15 we can expect (this offensive) at any time.”

Ukrainian officials have been warning for weeks that Russia is planning to launch a large-scale offensive in mid-February — and perhaps times to coincide with the first anniversary of the invasion — in order to try to capture the entire eastern Donbas region. Fighting has been relentlessly intense in Donetsk and Luhansk, which make up the Donbas, for months.

Ukraine is in a tricky position as it prepares to defend its positions in eastern Ukraine but awaits battle tanks and longer-range weaponry from its international allies. The delivery of tanks could take several months at least, Western officials say.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s defense minister expressed confidence Sunday that Western allies would agree to the country’s latest weapons request — warplanes to fight off Russian forces that invaded nearly a year ago.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told a news conference in Kyiv that Ukraine has already received everything from its “wish list to Santa,” except planes.

“There will be planes, too,” Reznikov predicted. “The question is just what kind exactly…. Consider that this mission is already completed.”

So far, Ukraine has won support from Baltic nations and Poland in its quest to obtain Western fighter jets. But several Western leaders have expressed concern that providing warplanes could provoke the Kremlin and draw their countries deeper into the conflict, which has cost tens of thousands of lives and wreaked massive destruction.

Kyiv says such jets are essential to challenging Russia’s air superiority and ensuring success in a Russian offensive that Reznikov predicted could begin around the war’s one-year anniversary, Feb. 24.

— Associated Press

Russia could call up 500,000 people for military service in the spring and summer of 2023 in order to support offensive operations in the east and south of Ukraine, according to a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

“In January 2023, we saw that Russia intended to mobilize 300,000 to 500,000 people into the army to support offensive operations in the east and south of Ukraine in the spring and summer of 2023,” Vadym Skibitskyi, the spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate said Monday, according to news agency Ukrinform.

“The relevant order to mobilize 500,000 conscripts in January is in addition to the 300,000 called up in October 2022,” he said. “This is another clear sign that the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war.”

A widely-expected and forthcoming Russian offensive may be launched in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and Zaporizhia in the south, Skibitskyi said.

“At the same time, Russian troops will further defend [a part of the] Kherson region and Crimea,” Skibitskyi said, according to Ukrinform.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent his Turkish counterpart his condolences after a deadly earthquake in Turkey and Syria early on Monday that killed hundreds of people.

A state of emergency has been declared in Turkey, where the death toll from the earthquake has risen to 284, with 2,323 people injured, Vice President Fuat Oktay told a news conference. He added that 1,710 buildings had collapsed.

Zelenskyy said on Twitter that Kyiv is ready “to provide the necessary assistance to overcome the consequences of the disaster.” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba echoed that offer.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the area of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine continues to be a hot spot in the war, with the country now preparing for a Russian offensive aimed at seizing the entire eastern Donbas region.

“There are already many reports that the occupiers want to do something symbolic in February. To try to avenge their last year’s defeats,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Sunday evening, referring to Russia’s expected offensive.

“We see this increased pressure in various areas of the frontline, as well as pressure in the information field,” the president added.

Donetsk has been the scene of intense fighting for several months, with Ukrainian forces battling regular Russian army units as well as mercenaries belonging to the Wagner Group private military company. In recent weeks, Russian forces have been seen to have made gains around the area of Bakhmut, capturing which is a key aim for them.

Zelenskyy remarked Sunday that “it is very difficult in the Donetsk region – there are fierce battles. But no matter how hard it is and no matter how much pressure there is, we have to withstand it.”

He added that every day has to be spent reinforcing “our defense at the front, to strengthen our international position, to increase pressure on Russia and to give our people new opportunities to get through this difficult time.”

— Holly Ellyatt