Russia-Ukraine war updates for June 26, 2023

European foreign affairs ministers are gathering in Luxembourg Monday morning with the latest events out of Russia dominating their conversations.

“It is more important than ever to support Ukraine,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said to the press.

“Because what has happened during this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and its political system,” he said.

The Wagner Group, seen as a private military organization in Russia, started a coup on Saturday complaining about the country’s defense minister and criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin. The revolt ended soon after that, but it exposed the fragilities of Putin within his own country. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “we haven’t seen the last act.”

“This is an internal affair of Russia,” Sweden’s Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billstrom said at his arrival for the meeting in Luxembourg.

“What happens in Russia (…) is going to have an impact on the security circumstances but the important thing right now is to stand by Ukraine in its efforts to regain its territorial integrity.”

He added that overall the short-lived uprising in Russia showed that “it is quite clear that the war is not going the way Putin wanted it to go.”

Russia’s attempt to achieve a full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022.

— Silvia Amaro

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Monday announced the end of the emergency counter-terror measures imposed in response to the Wagner’s armed mutiny.

In a statement posted on Telegram, Sobyanin thanked Muscovites for their “calmness and understanding.”

— Elliot Smith

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a botched rebellion against Vladimir Putin, according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

The weekend’s armed revolt by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the Wagner private militia group, has been viewed as a rare threat to the Russian president’s 23-year grip on power. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed “cracks” in the Kremlin that had not been previously seen.

Prigozhin is “kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.”

The Prigozhin-led revolt was unprecedented as Putin has — until now — been able to swiftly quell any occasional unarmed protest. On the weekend, the Wagner mutineers got within 200 kilometers of the capital of Moscow before their leader made the abrupt announcement to abort the mission.

Read this story for more.

— Clement Tan

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited his troops in Ukraine, the defense ministry said Monday, making his first public appearance since the weekend mutiny by Wagner mercenaries.

In a post on Telegram, the Ministry of Defense said Shoigu was briefed on progress by the commander of some troops in occupied Ukraine, according to a Google translation.

It indicates that Shoigu remains in charge despite the insurrection, which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly called off less than 24 hours after it began.

Shoigu’s future has been called into question following the events of the weekend, but the Telegram post described him as “head of the Russian military department.”

— Audrey Wan

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the violent insurrection by one of President Putin’s longtime allies exposed “cracks” in the regime that “weren’t there before.”

“This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia,” Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.

He called Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s direct challenge to Putin “extraordinary” and said Russia’s war in Ukraine has ultimately been a “devastating, strategic failure.”

Blinken expects the U.S. to learn more about the intricacies of the deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin, as well as the eventual fate of the Wagner Group, in the coming weeks and months.

Read the full story here.

– Elliot Smith

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a botched rebellion against Vladimir Putin, according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

The weekend’s armed revolt by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the Wagner private militia group, has been viewed as a rare threat to the Russian president’s 23-year grip on power. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed “cracks” in the Kremlin that had not been previously seen.

Prigozhin is “kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.”

The Prigozhin-led revolt was unprecedented as Putin has — until now — been able to swiftly quell any occasional unarmed protest. On the weekend, the Wagner mutineers got within 200 kilometers of the capital of Moscow before their leader made the abrupt announcement to abort the mission.

Read this story for more.

— Clement Tan

The criminal charges against Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will be dropped and he will go to Belarus, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday, according to Russian state media.

Russian authorities will not prosecute members of the Wagner that participated in the rebellion, and the PMC fighters who refused to participate in Prigozhin’s “campaign” will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, Peskov said.

There will be no new televised address from Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Peskov said the leader continued to work in the Kremlin all day.

Peskov said the rebellion will not affect the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in any way.

— Ashley Capoot