UPS has had a solid run this year, but that is poised to cool off in the coming months, according to Evercore ISI. The firm downgraded the mail carrier to in line from outperform and maintained its $214 price target due to economic uncertainty going forward and the stock’s outperformance year to date. That target implies upside of just 2.7% from Friday’s close of $208.43. “First, as a global enterprise with significant exposure to the consumer economy, the still-uncertain macro backdrop, especially related to consumer spending, provides further questions about a recovery in both domestic and international volumes and could pressure EPS estimates for 2H22 and 2023,” wrote Jonathan Chappell in a Monday note. Second, the stock has outperformed this year. UPS shares are only down 2.76% for 2022, while the S & P 500 has lost 11.3% in that time. Over the past three months, UPS is up 21.9%; it’s also the second-best performing transport stock in Evercore’s coverage. “The relative multiple to both the broader market and its closest transport peers is at the high-end of historical averages,” said Chappell. That means it’s more likely that UPS will fall in the coming months instead of continuing its run, according to Chappell. “It is true that UPS has been somewhat of a relative defensive safe-haven equity in prior periods of choppy markets, but with macro-related risk to the already sub-industry-average EPS growth we forecast for next year, relative multiple contraction seems more likely after a period of substantial outperformance if broader equity market concerns re-emerge,” he said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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