The dollar’s climb to a 20-year high has become a worry for investors, but if the greenback pulls back or even stabilizes, there is a group of stocks that could benefit. Evercore ISI strategists identified S & P 500 companies with high foreign revenues that stand to gain if the dollar comes off the boil. The dollar index, which is heavily affected by the strength or weakness of the euro, reached a high of 110.79 last week but pulled back to 109.84 in Monday trading. The euro traded below parity to the dollar last week, but jumped to a three-week high of $1.013 Monday. The move lower in the dollar helped lift the broader stock market Monday. “The dollar is the focal point of global macro stress right now,” said Julian Emanuel, head of Evercore ISI equity, derivative and quantitative strategy. “And two-way price action, which we started to see [last] week, is very important right now for the ability and likelihood that stock prices continue to move vigorously toward our 4,200 price target.” Evercore ISI expects the S & P 500 to reach 4,200 by yearend. The strategists in a weekend report note the dollar this year has gone “parabolic in a near ‘Perfect Storm.'” Factors driving it higher include the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation. The Evercore ISI strategists screened the S & P 500 for companies from export-oriented sectors that have more than 70% foreign revenue exposure. The companies also have high short interest, relative to each company’s 52-week history. NVIDIA, for instance, made the list and it has high foreign sales exposure, at 83.8%. The technology company’s stock has lagged its sector by 29.6% this year, according to Evercore ISI. The firm has an outperform rating on the stock. Another tech firm, Microchip Technology draws 78% of its revenues from foreign sources. Its stock is unrated by Evercore ISI, and it has lagged its sector by 1.6% year-to-date. In the consumer staples sector, Estee Lauder generates 80.2% of it sales from foreign sources. The stock has underperformed its sector by 27.2% so far this year. Evercore ISI rates the stock outperform. Industrial firm Otis Worldwide has 74.1% foreign sales, and it has underperformed its sector by 5.4%. Evercore ISI does not have a rating on the stock. Celanese is a materials company that has 76.5% foreign sales, and its stock has lagged its sector by 17.3% year-to-date. Evercore ISI rates the stock in line.
© heardonwallstreet.com