Evercore ISI analysts expect earnings estimates to plunge, but they do see some winners emerging during earnings season in a bifurcated market. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI head of equity, derivative and quantitative research, wrote in a note that S & P 500 “estimates [are] set to plunge again toward [the firm’s 2023 estimate] of $221.50, YoY growth of zero, as the specter of potential recession looms.” For the third quarter, Evercore ISI expects S & P 500 earnings to grow at a 4.1% pace and beat estimates by a modest 1.2%. Evercore ISI screened the Russell 1000 for stocks with a market cap above $10 billion that had underperformed into the June 16 low before outperforming and not setting a new low. The stocks also have seen positive 2023 earnings revisions and high short interest relative to the past year. The companies that fall into this grouping are diverse. They range from Apple to Snowflake. Home Depot , Trane and Lululemon Athletica are also on the list, as is Airbnb . Apple, for instance, is up 7.7% since the June low and its 2023 earnings have been revised down 23.8%. Snowflake is up 53% since the June low, and its earnings have been revised down about 52%. However, Snowflake stock is down more than 66% for the year. Evercore ISI also looked at stocks that could underperform this earnings season. The potential underperformers have a market cap above $10 billion. They also outperformed into the June 16 low but have since underperformed and made a new low since then. They also have downward earnings revisions and relatively low short interest. This group includes VMware , Raytheon and United Airlines. Johnson and Johnson and Corning also made the list.
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