JPMorgan equity strategists recommend a tactical trade out of energy stocks because the sector has gained 60% so far this year and crude oil prices are now lower in 2022. Energy stocks rallied this year, with expectations for much higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude hit a high of $130 per barrel in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but, more recently, crude has slumped and is now negative on the year. Yet, energy stocks remain sharply higher. Exxon Mobil , for example, had rallied more than 70% in 2022, as of Thursday’s close. In a note, Marko Kolanovic and the other JPMorgan strategists said they have been bullish on the sector over the past two years on the basis of business fundamentals, macroeconomics and technical chart patterns, and remain so longer term. “We believe that there is a tactical trade to sell energy stocks (either outright or relative to oil). The catalyst for convergence would be a pullback in the broad equity market,” they wrote. The strategists have said they expect the S & P 500 to test its lows early in the new year and rebound later in 2023 as the Federal Reserve pivots away from rate hikes. “This is a tactical short-term call, and, given that longer term we still believe in the energy supercycle and broad market recovery after a Fed pivot, a significant pullback (20-30%) in energy stocks would present a great entry point, in our view,” they added. West Texas Intermediate crude futures turned negative for the year this week. WTI futures for January were lower by 0.8% Thursday, settling at $71.12 per barrel, leaving WTI off nearly 5% for the year. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , which represents the S & P energy sector, was up 52% for the year, as of Thursday’s close.
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