Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Moldova dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defense ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false flag operation, and called for calm.

The Russian news agency RIA said Ukraine, which borders Moldova, planned to stage an attack by purportedly Russian forces from Transdniestria as a pretext for the invasion. Russia keeps troops in the breakaway region.

The TASS news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin as saying separately that the West had instructed Moldova’s government in Chisinau to stop all interaction with Transdniestria’s Moscow-backed authorities.

The Moldovan government issued a statement on the Telegram messaging app saying state authorities “do not confirm” the Russian defence ministry’s allegations.

“We call for calm and for information to be received (by the public) from official and credible sources of the Republic of Moldova,” it said. “Our institutions cooperate with foreign partners and in the case of threats to the country, the public will be promptly informed.”

Moldova’s foreign minister told Reuters on Wednesday that the tiny former Soviet republic, which also borders NATO member Romania, was prepared for a “full spectrum of threats” from Russia.

“Our institutions have planned for responses along the full spectrum of threats,” he said. “Of course we have limited means, but at the same time we are not alone in this.”

President Maia Sandu, who wants her country to join the European Union, accused Moscow this month of planning a coup to topple Moldova’s leadership. Moscow denied the allegation.

The mainly Russian-speaking region broke away from then-Soviet Moldova in 1990. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, pro-Russian separatists fought a war with Moldovan government forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week it was “obvious” that Ukraine would not be Russia’s last stop after invading Ukraine, and that the Kremlin was thinking about ways to “strangle” Moldova.

— Reuters

Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Thursday that heavy fighting has continued in the Bakhmut area over the past 48 hours but that Ukrainian forces “are keeping resupply routes open to the west despite Russia’s creeping encirclement over the last six weeks.”

Further south in the Donetsk region, the town of Vuhledar has again experienced heavy shelling, the ministry noted, adding that there is now “a realistic possibility that Russia is preparing for another offensive effort in this area despite costly failed attacks in early February and late 2022.”

The ministry noted that Russia’s Eastern Group of Forces likely still has responsibility for the Vuhledar operation, noting that its commander, Colonel General Rustam Muradov, “is likely under intense pressure to improve results following harsh criticism from the Russian nationalist community after previous setbacks.”

The ministry added, however, it is unlikely that Muradov has a striking force capable of achieving a breakthrough.

— Holly Ellyatt

Marking one year of war, Ukraine and Russia lobbied countries at the United Nations on Wednesday for backing ahead of a vote by the 193-member General Assembly that the United States declared will “go down in history.”

“We will see where the nations of the world stand on the matter of peace in Ukraine,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the General Assembly.

The General Assembly appeared set to adopt a resolution on Thursday, put forward by Ukraine and supporters, stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in line with the founding U.N. Charter.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced Russia’s invasion and said the Charter was “unambiguous,” citing from it: “All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”

Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly to match – if not better – the support received for several resolutions last year.

They argue the war is a simple case of one unprovoked country illegally invading another, while Russia portrays itself as battling a “proxy war” with West, which has been arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow since the invasion.

— Reuters

NATO’s chief said that the military alliance has seen “some signs” that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also told The Associated Press in an interview that the alliance, while not a party to the war, will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russia’s war, Stoltenberg said:

“We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. China should not support Russia’s illegal war.”

— Associated Press

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said that giving Ukraine fighter jets is “difficult,” because Sweden needs them “to maintain [its] territorial integrity.”

“When I look at the Russian capabilities, they’re severely downgraded when it comes to land components right now. But when it comes to assets in the air and naval assets, [they] are pretty much unchanged, so, for right now, [giving Ukraine] Gripen is in the ‘too hard to do’ box for me,” Jonson told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro, referring to the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets.

Jonson also highlighted that Sweden is very aware of what he described as Russia’s “low threshold” for the use of military force.

“[Russia] takes great political and military risk, and that’s something we’re cognisant about,” Jonson said, as he emphasized how important it was that Ukraine wins against Russia.

“This is a war that Russia started,” Jonson said. “If Russia would win this war, it would have disastrous geopolitical military and security policy consequences for Europe and Sweden as well.”

“We’re with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” he added.

Sweden is currently in the process of applying to join the NATO military alliance, along with Finland. It is only a “matter of time” for the country to obtain its membership, the Swedish foreign minister said earlier Wednesday.

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

Norway’s Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeld said Wednesday that NATO allies “have to be prepared” for rising nuclear risks, following Russia’s decision to suspend its nuclear-arms treaty with the U.S.

Huitfeld told CNBC that the geopolitical situation was currently “stable” in northern Europe, but warned that Russia’s nearby nuclear arsenal was a cause for concern.

“The situation in the north is stable, but we have to be prepared,” she told Silvia Amaro.

“Russia has one of their largest nuclear arsenals very, very close to the Norwegian border, and they still have these capacities despite the conventional loses that we’ve seen at land,” she said.

President Putin announced on Tuesday that Russia was suspending its participation in the New Start nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S. — a pact that limits the two sides’ strategic nuclear arsenals.

Huitfeld added that the region would be “even more secure” once Sweden and Finland are ratified into the NATO military alliance.

“When that will happen, I cannot be sure. But they are delivering on everything, so they are prepared, and we are ready to support them,” she said.

— Karen Gilchrist

Russian President Vladimir Putin briefly attended a concert in Moscow Wednesday to mark the national “Defender of the Fatherland” day in Russia.

Giving a brief speech to pro-war crowds gathered in the Luzhniki arena, Putin led the audience in chants of “Russia!” and said the country was fighting in Ukraine “for lands that were historically ours,” NBC News reported.

“Today, as part of a special military operation … We have gathered here for, in fact, a festive event, but I know that I was just listening to the country’s top military leadership about the fact that right now there is a battle on our historical borders, for our people,” Putin added, according to further comments reported by state news agency Tass.

Putin expressed his pride in Russia’s forces and said each soldier was a defender of the Motherland.

— Holly Ellyatt

Officials in Moscow appeared bullish on Wednesday about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to suspend Russia’s participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the U.S. and Russia that sought to limit the nuclear arsenals of both countries.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday that the decision to suspend the treaty was “overdue” and that Russia’s move would have “a huge resonance in the world in general and in the United States in particular.”

Medvedev repeated a Russian claim that the U.S. “wants the defeat of Russia” and that the world is on the brink of a new global conflict. “If the United States wants to defeat Russia, then we have the right to defend ourselves with any weapon, including nuclear,” Medvedev said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was reported in Russian media Wednesday as saying that Moscow would still be able to “fairly reliably assess” the U.S.’ nuclear potential from outside of the agreement.

“There are national technical means that make it possible to fairly reliably assess what is happening. We, in addition, have accumulated experience in tracking what is happening in the United States, and not only in the United States, in this area, using other possibilities. Yes, this is not the same as information exchange within the framework of the agreement. But the situation has changed radically, so we will proceed from what is available,” Ryabkov told reporters, according to Russian news agency Ria Novosti.

The New Start treaty allowed for mutual inspections of each other’s nuclear weapons sites, although in practice, these have been suspended since the Covid-19 pandemic and have not resumed since the war in Ukraine began.

Ryabkov also said Russia would continue to adhere to the “central quantitative restrictions” under the treaty, saying that at this stage, Moscow considered “this sufficient from the point of view ensuring predictability and maintaining strategic stability.”

Medvedev signaled, as did Moscow’s Foreign Ministry in a statement on Tuesday, that Russia’s suspension of the treaty is reversible but that it wants to see Washington show “political will …for a general de-escalation and create conditions for the resumption of the full functioning” of the treaty. Russia has also said it wants to see Britain and France’s nuclear arsenals counted in any future Start treaty.

— Holly Ellyatt