Macron enraged France with his pension bill. But few think he’ll be forced out

A coalition of French lawmakers on Friday filed a no confidence motion against President Emmanuel Macron following chaotic scenes in the country’s lower house of parliament the day before.

Despite frantic last-minute negotiations and number-crunching, Macron calculated he did not have enough votes in the National Assembly to pass his controversial and long-standing plan to raise the retirement age.

So he resorted to the back-up plan that many — including within his party — opposed; using a special constitutional power to force it through without a parliamentary majority.

The measure, which means the national retirement age will go from 62 to 64 for most workers, was announced by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who was met with chants, jeers and boos from lawmakers.

The reaction was fierce. Union CFDT called it a “true denial of democracy” and called on local unions to rally over the weekend, and for a big day of strikes and protest action on March 23.

Around 7,000 people gathered to protest on the Place de la Concorde in Paris on Thursday evening, Reuters reported, where police used tear gas and charged at protesters.

A coalition of left-wing lawmakers filed one no confidence motion, which is being backed by leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Another has been filed by the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, now led by Jordan Bardella, which has said it will vote in favor of any no-confidence motion.

Macron, Borne and their Renaissance party, formerly En Marche, are expected to make it through the vote.

Julien Hoez, a political consultant who has worked with the Renaissance party, says the motion of no confidence will struggle to get the required majority of 287 votes. That’s with Mélenchon’s left-wing La France Insoumise, Le Pen’s National Rally, green party Europe Ecology, and others opposed to Macron’s bill — potentially also including members of the center-right establishment party Les Républicains. Hoez noted it will be tight, and it’s possible Borne could step down.

The strength of feeling against the deployment of the special constitutional measure should not be underestimated, he told CNBC by phone.

“With the budget it was understandable and acceptable because you need the budget to keep the country running, it made it an easier pill to swallow,” Hoez said.

“Something as important as this needed to be done differently in order to make things work. People think this is undemocratic.”

While Macron was re-elected in 2022, things don’t look good for next year’s European elections, he said, and at home Renaissance will increasingly be pushed into a corner between the left and right and the controversy will hinder its ability to pass other measures.

Some opposition to the raising of the retirement age centers on how it will negatively impact women, public sector workers and people on lower pay who begin work earlier.

For many on the left, the government’s argument that change is needed to ensure the pension system’s longevity and reduce its annual deficit of 10 billion euros ($10.73 billion) is a case of priorities, particularly given its policies such as tax breaks benefiting the ultra-wealthy and businesses.

National Rally’s Marine Le Pen, who Macron beat to the top job in 2022, has also positioned herself against the reforms which she has called an unfair burden on the people — and some analysts say the measure may boost her popularity.