What should be the most wonderful time of year for stocks has turned into a particularly tough ride. Technical analysts are pointing to behavior in the market that could spell more trouble for stocks. Stocks and bonds have broken a correlation of lower bond yields and higher stocks. Recently, it’s been lower stock prices and lower yields, meaning investors are still dumping stocks but are buying bonds again. “As the market shifts its focus from the Fed to the economy, we think the bond/stock correlation will continue to unwind. Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks,” according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. When tech and growth were drivers of the stock market, the correlation of lower yields and higher stocks was at its zenith. The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield is well below its October high above 4.30%. It was at 3.55% on Monday morning. Krinsky also pointed out that last week was the fifth negative outside week this year for the S & P 500 , meaning the index hit a lower low. “The prior four all saw further downside in the following week,” he wrote in a weekend note. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. “The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070,” he wrote in his weekend note. “Our take is that the index’s multi-month base is intact, and a failure to hold above the Nov. 10th CPI gap at 3,815 would be the next warning for the recovery.” The S & P 500 closed at 3,852 Friday. Wald said he is monitoring the ARK Innovation Fund ETF, or ARKK, as a proxy for low momentum and market risk. “ARKK has come into an imminent test of $32 support dating back to its Dec. 2018 and March 2020 lows, and a breakdown to new lows would be bearish for market risk, in our view,” Wald said. ARKK closed at $33.26 Friday. “Our take is that the [S & P 500] index’s base is intact,” he wrote. But, he said, if ARKK does break down, that would lead “us to think selling relative weakness is an attractive hedge against poor trading.” Scott Redler, partner with T3live.com, said the market is in a “no man’s land.” When the S & P broke 3,906 last week, it opened the door for a move to 3,818, he explained. If that should happen, the next move lower could be to 3,740, he said. ‘Tis the season to be jolly December is typically a good time of year for stocks — particularly the end of the month when the so-called Santa rally takes hold. This year, the S & P 500 is down about 6% in December so far, and analysts say a Santa rally is still possible but less likely. According to Stock Trader’s Almanac , there is a Santa rally period that occurs in the final five trading days in December and the first two in January, a period that is usually positive. Oppenheimer’s Wald said that since 1928, the S & P 500 has had an average 1.7% gain and traded higher 79% of the time during this period. This year’s Santa period starts Dec. 26 and ends Jan. 4. Wald noted that the Almanac carries a warning if the period is negative. It is: “If Santa fails to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” In that case, stocks usually perform below average in the next one to two quarters. When there was a decline, the S & P 500 averaged a 1.2% loss in the three months following a negative return in those seven trading sessions, Wald noted. The 2021 gain of 1.4% was the twelfth time the period was positive in the past 14 years. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later. “Santa called, AND bears came to Broad & Wall,” he said.
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