Stocks have been rallying into the end of the year, but this is not the time for investors to chase growth and its promise of future rewards, according to technical strategists. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 4.9% in November, outperforming the other major averages. The Dow is now down less than 6% year to date. MKM chief market technician JC O’Hara said in a note to clients on Sunday that “old school leadership” is here to stay. “It is our opinion that since the Dow was initial leadership out of the October low, it should remain a leader and any pause in the Dow will result in a pause for the S & P 500,” O’Hara wrote. “If this old index can continue to push higher and deeper into overbought territory, that will help break the S & P 500 out.” John Roque of 22V Partners said in a note to clients that the old economy sectors that are well represented in the Dow are the key to its outperformance and sign of things to come. “In the most recent rally which began on Oct. 13 it’s been Non-Growth Sectors – Industrials, Materials and Financials – in the lead. And it’s in this last rally that I believe PM’s / investors have finally accepted the idea that Growth is no longer their savior,” Roque said. One way for investors to play this trend is ETFs of old-school stocks, including the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) . The fund tracks the 30 stocks in the Dow Average, with an expense ratio of 0.16%, or $1.60 for every $1,000 invested. The Invesco S & P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) has performed even better than the Dow this year, with a total return of more than 3%. The fund is a bit more expensive, with a management fee of 0.35%. Several old economy sector funds were listed as MKM’s top ETFs, including the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) , SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) and the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) . To be sure, there are some signs that the Dow may be overbought in the short-term, MKM’s O’Hara said. However, that market still looks more attractive than the growth heavy Nasdaq. “The relative line between the Dow Jones Industrial Average versus the Nasdaq Composite has bounced off longer term support and recently broken above a multi-year downtrend line in favor of the Dow,” O’Hara said. “This pattern speaks for further outperformance.”
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