Investors should utilize last week’s rally to cut back their equity exposure and take some profits ahead of a looming recession, a top stock strategist at JPMorgan says. “Our optimism is tempered by the still elevated recession risks, and risk that the October CPI data proves anomalous and/or fails to reduce central bankers’ eagerness to push policy into more restrictive territory,” wrote Marko Kolanovic in a note to clients Monday. “While we remain OW equities and long-term positive, we use the sharp rally from last week as an opportunity to moderately reduce our equity OW given the above risks.” The S & P 500 on Friday notched its best week since June , gaining nearly 6% as a better-than-expected inflation report ignited hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon cut back its tightening pace. On Tuesday, stocks continued to push higher as a fresh report on producer prices reinforced this view. However, despite the strong comeback, recession risks persist and appear “difficult to avoid” as the fed funds rate hovers close to 5%, Kolanovic wrote. The strategist, who was promoted to chief global markets strategist in 2021, has accrued a sizeable following in recent years for properly calling the March 2020 bottom and the ensuing market comeback . However, he’s maintained a too-bullish strategy heading into this year. Through the end of 2022, Kolanovic expects equity valuations to largely reflect commentary from central banks worldwide. “As such, we see Equities primed for upside into year-end,” he wrote. “Next year, however, we expect a more challenging earnings backdrop relative to current expectations.” Along with the slight sentiment shift on equities, Kolanovic exited the bank’s long dollar bias to one that’s neutral on the greenback and short the dollar versus the yen. He also noted additional exposure to corporate bonds. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
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