Value opportunities for investors are reemerging, according to UBS, and the firm has named several stocks trading at a discount that it says are not value traps. Stocks that look cheap become “traps” to investors if the company’s performance fails to improve, or its competitive position, cost controls, innovation or executive management deteriorate. Stocks are getting knocked around this year by rising interest rates, soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine and now fears of a recession, UBS strategist Keith Parker said in a note Thursday. “Versus their own history, the P/E for the average stock in the S & P 1500 trades below the 40th percentile, a level which in itself ranks in the bottom quartile since 1998,” Parker said. “However, amid rising risks, our model indicates equities are implying a 30% probability of a recession, and forward returns have been bimodal depending on whether a recession materializes or not.” “Indeed, valuations of the cheapest quintile of stocks have reached the largest discount to implied ‘fair’ value since the peak of the Covid-19 crisis,” he added. UBS has a value (that’s not a trap) stock screen that uses a machine learning price-to-book model overlaid with earnings momentum and quality criteria to identify value even when accounting for rising macroeconomic risks. Return on equity, earnings yield, dividend payout and leverage are the most important factors in the model, Parker said. The screen has outperformed by more than 30% since 2020 “and has been more consistent than traditional value factors,” he added. Here are 10 of the names: Signet Jewelers is one of the cheapest names on the list. It’s in the bottom-most percentile, according to the firm’s machine learning price-to-book model, and its price-to-earnings is in the first percentile versus its own history. The stock is down 28.5% for the year. Williams-Sonoma ‘s 12-month price-to-earnings is the lowest it’s been in its history. The stock price is down 25% for the year. On the higher end of P/E versus history, ConocoPhillips is in the 24th percentile versus previous years. Its stock price has soared about 68% this year as energy stocks have outperformed in 2022. Twitter and 3M are on the higher end of the list in terms of the price-to-book screen. They’re followed closely by Microchip Technology and Dow . Boyd Gaming , AT & T and Capital One also made the UBS list as attractive candidates.
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