The dollar’s slide from a two-decade high has given a boost to European markets over the U.S., and the move still has a ways to go, according to Fundstrat. Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, looked specifically at Europe and the performance of the SPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF . Newton said the ETF broke out in late October, compared with the S & P 500 and has performed better into mid-November. Ratio charts show the ETF and European markets could have three to four more weeks of possible outperformance before the trade falters, he said. The dollar index, which represents the dollar against a basket of currencies, has fallen about 3.2% since the start of November. FEZ is up 13.9% in that period, while the S & P 500 is up 4% in that time. “There’s a big disparity there, and a lot of this is U.S. technology is up against the wall in the short run,” said Newton. “The euro has screamed higher, and the dollar has broken down a little bit. I think it’s temporary. But for the time being, I think it has a bit more to go into December.” Newton said he would also look to the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF, or EZU, for this trade, since it is another big liquid ETF. He added that plays on individual markets, like France or Germany, are following the same pattern. He also looked to individual sectors like banking, where stocks like Deutsche Bank were beaten down. Its ADR has increased about 11% since early November. “It’s not to say the U.S. is going to be a big underperformer. It’s just a shorter-term pocket of strength,” he said. “It’s just U.S. technology is holding back [the U.S. market], where many parts of the world are doing better,” he said.
© heardonwallstreet.com