JPMorgan is making a complete 180-turn on Intel as the chipmaker continues to fall behind its rivals. Analyst Harlan Sur double downgraded the semiconductor stock to underweight after previously suspending coverage at overweight. He cut the price target to $32 from $64, which implies upside of 7.5%. “We believe it will be several years before Intel is able to reverse the tide to reclaim technology leadership in hopes of regaining market share.” Sur said. Sur said the company has 77% of market share for central processing units, but noted it’s losing business every year and is technologically behind competitors Advanced Micro Devices and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing . He said it would take “flawless execution” to bridge the technology gap, which he called unlikely given what he sees as a history of missteps from Intel. Part of that stems from current challenges with a new central processing unit, called Sapphire Rapids, that had production pushed due to security issues. Its alchemist discrete GPU has also been considered an underperformer due to software performance issues, he said. He said Intel will also be pressured by weakening demand for personal technology over the next 12 to 18 months. Personal computer units are expected to be down 14% and 5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, while server units will grow 4% and 1% in the same years, data shows. This cooling growth would leave an overhang on the stock and question the sustainability of dividend payments, Sur said. Cloud and data needs will remain strong, but Intel will not feel the full tailwinds as it continues to lose market share, he added. Sur also pointed to challenges with Intel Foundry Services, given that a customer making a design within the unit today would not see chip design and production commence for two years. It will be about three to five years, if not longer, before Sur expects revenue to scale in this unit, which is considered to be a major growth initiative. To be sure, Sur said the stock could defy the expectation of minimal participation in growth if it gains technology “parity” with competitors or the slowdown within personal computer and central processing units is not as bad as expected. More costumers using Intel Foundry Services could also put the company in a better position. But Sur said the outlook at the moment is to see Intel jog while its competitors sprint for at least the next year. “Given the market has time to gain confidence on Intel’s ability to execute in its core compute and diversification initiatives, we believe INTC will be an under-performer relative to the group over the next 12-18 months,” he said. “It is important to note that our rating on INTC is a relative call vs the group, for which see a positive move over the next 12-18 months and where we see INTC stock participating, but we think at a slower pace.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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